Decision Simulation · M-103Decision Engine Output
What-If Simulation
Change the operating context and watch the decision engine re-evaluate priority, recommended action, risk and cost in real time.
Try a scenario:
Context inputs
Maintenance date (plan being evaluated)
Production demand
Failure probability78%
Backup capacity (M-104)72%
Spare part SPB-440
AVAILABLE
Technician (Team B)
AVAILABLE
Decision Priority
87
/ 100
Recommended action
Schedule preventive maintenance for M-103.
Maintenance window
Saturday 26 Sep, 22:00–01:00
Team
Maintenance Team B
Risk
AcceptableProduction mitigation: Shift affected production to M-104 beginning 20:00.
- Part and qualified team available in the Saturday low-load window.
Estimated risk
Acceptable
Risk-weighted exposure Rp 18.9M
Estimated cost
Rp 18M
no changeOperational impact
LOW
Production & customer orders
Window evaluation
Every window re-scored under the current context| Window | P(fail before) | Orders hit | Impact | Risk | Decision score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tomorrow (Wed 23 Sep) 10:00–13:00 | 0.1% | 5 | Rp 64M | Low | 68 |
Saturday 26 Sep, 22:00–01:00 Selected planHighest score | 13% | 0 | Rp 18M | Acceptable | 87 |
Sunday 27 Sep, 01:00–04:00 | 13.9% | 0 | Rp 18M | Acceptable | 87 |
Defer 7 days (Tue 29 Sep) | 52.3% | 0 | Rp 145M | Very High | 31 |
Key insight
DECISIONS CHANGE WHEN CONTEXT CHANGES.
Same asset. Same model. Different context — a different best action.